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You asked about the competitive advantage of Flutter, and I think scale is important in gambling. In a stable market, the larger your pool and the more markets you operate in, the more you can leverage your risk. When I joined Paddy Power, it was heavily skewed towards horse racing. A bad Cheltenham Festival could wipe out an entire month's revenue for the business. This was a major issue because one big event over four days could impact the budget for the whole year. In 2016, we realized we wouldn't hit our budget because we lost so much money during Cheltenham. That was a risk due to our size.
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One of the biggest projects that happened while I was there, probably in 2018, was the business started pricing to the 100% line. Everything was priced as though you'd make no profit. It was about what we thought the book would be if we were to make a 0% margin. Then, we developed the ability to ratchet that up depending on the market.
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For example, the UK Premier League, or the English Premier League, is super competitive in the UK. Therefore, it would be priced at 107%, expecting to make a 7% margin on it. However, the prices in São Paulo would be 112% because it doesn't need to be as accurate since it's not as competitive a market.
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