Disclaimer: This interview is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. In Practise is an independent publisher and all opinions expressed by guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of In Practise.

{audio:0:03:14} I run a small, concentrated value fund in London. I’m trying to learn about e-commerce in the UK, and especially the companies listed in London. I’m talking to people from many companies. It will be a broad conversation, without going into too much specific detail in any area. My first question is, really, you left THG in December 2021; what has been your impression of the company over the last 10 months? 

{audio:0:04:23} There has been a lot of internal change. Not much has changed inside the business in terms of attitude, or from the people I know there. There’s always been a feeling of uncertainty, and nobody seems to know where it is going. The business still seems to be moving forward, and they have not stopped hiring. There are no red flags by any means. However, two to three years ago, people would say the business would continue to grow and still be around in 20 years. Now people wonder what’s going to happen, and ask, how much does the share price drop from 800p to 30p make a difference?’

{audio:0:05:16} Do you think that’s a reflex reaction with people looking at the share price and inferring from that? 

{audio:0:05:32} Yes. It’s people looking at the share price and asking, what's going on here? Fundamentally, I still don't think anything inside the business has changed. Nothing internally has made it go from 800 to 30. Nothing has changed structurally or fundamentally, or in the way the business is being run. It’s still a company with an average age of 25, of kids running a business, which it’s always been. I think from an attitude perspective, it's still the same and it's still the same business. It's more how the outside world views the business. There are many people inside the company who may have been gifted 100K or 50K in shares, and now they’re worth chewing gum. That definitely eats away people; it's not like they ever had the money, but it's tangible that you lost. 

{audio:0:06:35} I think that’s happening in many places, perhaps not to the same extent as with THG. The sentiment on so many companies, like THG, has turned when it’s happened quickly. Many people in the Valley, certainly, and globally, in that fast-paced environment, are looking at their option schemes and LTIPs and not feeling great. I think that does eat away at morale, and is a worry that people have in these situations. 

{audio:0:07:10} There are people that I know personally that had to pay the tax on the shares that they were given, so they paid the 20%. Some people even took loans to pay the tax, and then now that the shares dropped 95%, they’re worth less than the loan, so they’re in a tough financial position that they can’t necessarily get out of. 

{audio:0:07:29} That’s brutal. THG have been aggressively issuing stock recently. It seems to me, from an investor’s perspective, that they are trying to address some of that decline in morale with new options, and they’re buying aggressively in the market for Benefit Trust. Broadly, do you think senior management still has control of the ship? They seem confident and defiant in the face of the change in sentiment. They seem to focus on the same things that they were always focused on. 

{audio:0:08:32} Revenue and profit have always come before all else. The hard, tangible stuff is always more important than soft stuff. I said this to people as they joined the business. There’s a high turnover rate; people come and go, and I think the people that came and went expected a lot and didn't give as much. The senior management is generally hard on profit and revenue. Because profit and revenue are such a focus, sometimes the soft management skills, like employee morale, get forgotten about within the business. They’ve done things to try and improve that and progress as they’ve grown in the business. I think that hasn't changed. The people who progress through the business and are now in senior management positions are the same people who grew up with that attitude. The people that have lasted out there have been the same people who’ve stuck through it from beginning to end. 

{audio:0:09:54} The CEO of Myprotein now is someone who started in customer service. He's gone all the way through, and he’s been there for 13 years, but he’s got good graft. He wouldn’t necessarily be a CEO of a public company in the traditional sense, but he’s definitely right for what it is, at the time now. In the last couple of months, there has been a shift internally in CEOs. The Myprotein CEO is now the Beauty CEO, and the Beauty CEO doesn't work at The Hut Group anymore, and the new Myprotein CEO has taken it up, so they’ve all shuffled around. 

{audio:0:10:32} Do you think that was in response to the governance concerns raised, or do you think that was just an internal rejig? 

{audio:0:10:41} No, I think that was just an internal rejig. 

{audio:0:10:44} There were many changes at the board level, which I think were more focused on the governance queries. 

{audio:0:10:52} From a board perspective, I assume this is normal for the rest of the business, but I was never privy to anything happening on the board. It is divisional CEOs Matt Moulding and the CFO. When we saw news that there was a new board member, it never changed anything that we did. It didn't affect us in any way, or at least not that we knew. 

{audio:0:11:23} Is it fair to say that, for the last couple of years, that the capital structure has been a major consideration? In preparation for the IPO, I assume it was at the front of the minds of people on the board, and Matt and the other C-suite guys. Was it run as THG, the company, the group, or as a collection of divisions? For example, are people in Nutrition encouraged to think about THG as a whole, or are they working for that business and the focus on that business? 

{audio:0:12:15} In the last 10 years, it has always been Myprotein is Myprotein, Beauty is Beauty. It's almost seen as a betrayal to go from one to the other. It's not like people aren’t friends and the CEOs don't talk. However, for example, the Myprotein female range might work with the Beauty team because there's a crossover. So, yes, there is some collaboration, but it is still very separate. The fact that they separated out the business units didn’t make it any more segmented than already was.

{audio:0:12:58} There's just been so much discourse around spin offs and split outs and altering the capital structure. For the whole time THG has been or has been in anticipation of being a public company, there have been discussions, so I’m not surprised. 

{audio:0:13:19} It made no tangible impact on us daily. When they started talking about splitting the divisions, it appeared all these P&Ls were centralized. Where those costs were being allocated to Ingenuity or other divisions, it was all centralized. As divisions, we saw our product P&L, such as our categories and our products, and everything else was centralized. Whatever shift was happening was done at central level, and to each division it didn’t make any difference to how we operated.

{audio:0:14:06} There is a significant difference between how the external world uses THG Ingenuity and how THG use it. THG Beauty and Nutrition, as individuals, used the Ingenuity services as a self-serve platform. We can go into the platform, change our banners, and make our offers. We can do whatever we want. The external world can't do the same thing on THG Ingenuity. If you think of Shopify, which is a self-serve platform that anyone can use to create a website, you can’t do that as an external user. You can as a THG user, somebody whose business you can self-serve on this platform, but this external platform is completely B2B. 

{audio:0:15:23} The way it works is that a brand gives over all their products, and THG says, we’re going to internationalize you, we’ll do your warehousing, we’ll run your website, we’ll give you the data and do everything for you. The value comes when THG figures out how to translate what we've got internally and give it to the outside world, and I think it will happen. Currently, they have a platform that only serves as a B2B platform. As soon as they turn it into a B2C platform, they will be completing with platforms like Shopify, and they will be in a different ball game.

{audio:0:16:03} At the moment, it seems as if Ingenuity is being sold as this miraculous black box, full stack offering, which can define your brand and go all the way through the journey to your product arriving at someone’s front door. So, yes, it’s interesting to hear you say that.

{audio:0:16:30} It’s only valuable to large businesses. For example, Ingenuity runs Coca-Cola UK's website, where you can personalize cans of Coke, but is Coke the thing you want to buy online? 

{audio:0:16:47} They make a big deal out of that, and D2C Coke is such a small fraction outside of holidays. I thought that was strange. 

{audio:0:16:59} Most GMV is coming from very big clients. It's not the million-dollar contract that will get you, it's the million $100 contracts that you get from small users, from the individual, from the retail investment from the retail users. That’s where this ecommerce market has grown. It's what the Americans call the mom-and-pop shops. The platform is there, I know it's there, I have used it, I’ve seen it, I’ve worked with it. It’s not external friendly yet; it’s got a few bugs and needs some finessing, but it’s there. 

{audio:0:17:47} Do you think the way you used it could scale to that degree? Each brand within each division has its own login, so it already has thousands of users. 

{audio:0:18:06} It’s got thousands of users within the business, but there are hundreds of websites inside which we all self-access. 

{audio:0:18:16} That's helpful, thank you. Let’s change tack and talk in a little more detail about nutrition, as I know you spent a lot of time there. One of the things I have been wrestling with, more so than Beauty, is the fundamental nature of the products. THG talk a lot about customer loyalty, and on the one hand, they’ve been aggressive with not increasing their costs, and have been widening the gap in price between Myprotein and other competitors, in the hope that it gets repaid later. I think it is uncertain that it is the type of product that will work for. Am I wrong? Are people loyal to brands, and if they lose that price leadership, will people still not buy Bulk Powders or similar?

{audio:0:19:37} When you’re as big as Myprotein in a discount market, it made a huge difference for a price point, particularly on the whey protein. You’ll still find that maybe 505 to 70% of orders contain some form of whey protein powder. It doesn't necessarily mean all the revenue is coming from that, but there's always some form of pure powder you put in a package. It would be sensitive to the point where, for example, if we had gone out with a 25% off offer and Bulk Powders on the same day had sent a 30% offer, we would probably see a dip in sales at a certain time. The bigger you are in the market, the more switches you have. There are a percentage of people choosing between these two brands, because the products are relatively similar in ingredient profiles in a pure protein form. 

{audio:0:20:45} Myprotein were one of the first to deliver protein in a packet, no amino acids, or blends, and all the stuff that Optimum Nutrition sells, but just flavoring and protein, or even just unflavored protein if that’s what the customer wants. Bulk is similar, Protein Works are similar because they were the people who left Myprotein and started that, and they have the same model happen there.

{audio:0:21:11} However, it is a PR story that Myprotein are not increasing prices. There are definitely increases in prices that have gone through substantially over the last two to three years. There are people on Twitter who have taken screenshots of their order from two years ago, and then tagged Myprotein in it. You can see it has basically doubled in price in two years. So, either, they'd already done enough price increases – it was a constant review of price increases in whey – or it would always be on the tail end of the whey protein product, because that would be the leader. You would make up the loss of protein by not having to increase the price of protein, but adding 20% amino acids, and that would make up for the difference in whey. 

{audio:0:22:03} The more cross selling and other products we sold, the easier it was to hide the price of the whey increase, because that was the most sensitive product to get people in. Once you've got people in on the whey, they just buy anything else because they’re looking at that key product. Because generally that's the most money they're spending, the other products are just side products.

{audio:0:22:33} That makes sense. It is fair to say that there is a commodity element to whey as a product. What does that mean long-term for the business? To defend their market share, they'll have to maintain price leadership. Is that too simple of a conclusion? 

{audio:0:22:48} That’s true. We tried not to increase the price and decrease the discount, and that made it worse. People would rather buy the concept of getting 50% off, rather than remember the exact saving. People don't remember whether it was £32.99 or £34.99, for example, they just remember the percentage discount. So, we stopped decreasing discounts and started increasing prices.

{audio:0:23:26} That’s interesting. In certain things, you get that anchoring effect.

{audio:0:23:38} The anchor is to the percentage discount, particularly the Myprotein customer. With a database the size it is, there are over a million people in that email database. You get a lot of tests quickly. You can understand the impact of language and messaging quickly, with significance. 

{audio:0:23:55} Do you think they can keep leadership in whey, especially? 

{audio:0:24:11} Yes, I think there are about nine whey suppliers in Europe; there aren’t that many. They have an oligopoly on the place, and there’s definitely some price fixing between those suppliers of whey in Europe. However, everybody buys from everybody, and everyone buys the same whey protein powder as a base. They can maintain the highest margins because they can buy so much volume from these suppliers that they will get a better price than anyone else. It's not like there are infinite whey suppliers. There will only be a set number of suppliers, and they will get the best price because the buyers understand the market, and how much it needs to cost. 

{audio:0:25:00} The way I think about such products is that to win in the long run, you must have the lowest cost of production and fulfillment compared to other people. Because ultimately, if the customer is always led by discount or price, the only competitive advantage is that you can sell it cheaper and survive as a business more than other people can. 

{audio:0:25:29} Yes. They can buy the raw ingredients better. Myprotein factory has a bigger factory than anybody else in the UK; it’s already all vertically integrated. The tech stack is vertically integrated because it's THG Ingenuity, so it's a step ahead for everybody for that market. 

{audio:0:25:59} Myprotein is the market leader in the UK. Although it’s only about a third of the business for Myprotein, the rest is international. It's not even a little bit less. There's a lot elsewhere, particularly in Asia and Japan. Japan is number two.

{audio:0:26:21} How much do you think the protein powder segment will grow, generally? Is everyone that wants to take whey protein taking it? 

{audio:0:26:54} We’re not there yet, certainly not in Asia, where Myprotein has a good hold on the market. Asia is a huge chunk of Myprotein; Japan, China, and Korea. There are certainly more people in Asia, because that middle class is changing, and the attitude towards health has still not fully developed. In the UK, you've still got this shift in attitude. You can see in supermarkets where they used to be chocolate bars and chewing gum, there are now protein bars and nut snacks. The attitude towards health and snacking has changed. 

{audio:0:27:34} Myprotein is focused on retail, so it's now in the big four supermarkets with its protein bars etc. That is a lead in that’s bringing people back into the brand, and thinking about health and protein. The market’s not over yet, it's certainly still growing, it’s not stagnant. It grew hugely through Covid and probably more than anything why 2022 was a struggle for everybody, whether it was overbought or overestimated. 

{audio:0:28:04} Whey isolate does well in Asia. Do you use the same product mix, or do you have to tweak it?

{audio:0:28:16} It’s the same base product mix. The only one completely different is the US, because the US has its own production facility, and the flavors are things like snicker-doodle and cinnamon roll etc. In Asia, it's used as a marketing gimmick, so there are variations such as green tea flavor, milk tea, matcha, and Hokkaido milk for Japan, so some regional flavors. It is a KitKat Japan type concept, and the same flavor localization with collectable pouches has become popular in Asia. 

{audio:0:29:08} Is there the same customer mix there? Is it still mainly males in their teens and 20s? 

{audio:0:29:15} There is a slightly older demographic coming through, but I think that's everywhere. It is still males in their 20s, but you still need disposable income to spend on sports nutrition, so it's not just students. It is possibly a 55:45 male:female split now, but it's certainly not a male focused brand at all. 

{audio:0:29:49} That’s interesting. Beauty is quite a different business. It seems more about the growth in the core big brands, such as LOOKFANTASTIC. Could you explain how it works when THG acquires one of these brands? For example, what do they keep, what do they get rid of? What role does Ingenuity play in an acquisition? 

{audio:0:31:01} My involvement was building the website, integrating the team, teaching them our platforms, and then managing half of them, before some of them quit. It's not always the same. In reality, finance, design, any centralized functions within The Hut Group, go – that is rule one – and is cut almost immediately. To take a step back, the way they get acquisition targets is through a company finding them for them. The company finds them, sends them to the legal department, and the legal department reviews them. I don't know whether they review them from a business perspective or more whether they are aligned, and there’s someone from M&A who roughly knows what they're looking for. That gets sent on to either Matt or John. It is then sent to whoever's relevant in the business. 

{audio:0:32:12} In Dermstore’s case, we are sent the IM, and are told to look through it and send back questions that we need to ask about this business to understand. We did three or four of them, but there are different people around various parts of the business. Then the senior leadership looked at it to find out what was going through. There is a lot that happens in the background that we don't know about, and then the business is bought. 

{audio:0:32:39} In the process, depending on how the business is done, there's also a tech team in Ingenuity who focuses on acquisitions. This is so that their resource is not being dragged from other departments, and they can focus on acquisitions. Usually, there is one lead from each department, and they'll bring in other people for support. In this case, in the US, the website was being built before we bought Dermstore. There are times when they’ve built a website, they've got many people to invest in building this website, and the deal has fallen through, and that website is just deleted.

{audio:0:33:27} Is that to minimize downtime, and to maximize the number of customers that come straight over?

{audio:0:33:37} It’s to minimize cost. Dermstore was the biggest platform The Hut Group have ever bought, but you have to have a tech team who manages whatever platform they’re using. Dermstore had a custom-built website, so we had to build all the functions and features. We had to do some gap analysis, looking into, what do they have on our platform and what do they have as a business that we could substitute with a tool that THG already has? There are some cases where we don't have anything like it. For example, Dermstore had a loyalty scheme, The Hut Group didn't have a loyalty scheme. They needed to build a full loyalty scheme that was ready and working exactly the way Dermstore’s was, so that when it migrated, it was as if there was a switch. 

{audio:0:34:24} In reality, it doesn't ever work 100% perfectly. Sometimes there are gaps missed, or there are things which perhaps weren’t communicated over as important that get missed. However, there are also benefits that the THG can add; for example, the speed of data and the speed of access to analytics and all that kind of stuff. That’s stuff that most acquisitions have never had. Most of the time key people from the teams are kept. In that handover period, you're starting to understand who's worth it, who's not, and who will fit into the THG culture because it is sink or swim. Bit by bit, you take that knowledge and merge them into the teams, or some people are let go, or however it ends up being. There's no hard and fast rule. 

{audio:0:35:14} When you have to build something like the loyalty scheme, does that become part of the platform for other teams to use? Would that appear for another user of the Ingenuity platform as one of their tools, and is that how it’s evolved over time? 

{audio:0:35:39} People throw the AWS comparison around a lot. I'm not sure how much it is overblown, but that's interesting. 

{audio:0:35:48} For example, when they brought on Homebase as a client, they had a feature which they wanted, where you click on the image of the kitchen, and it brings up the cabinet. You might have seen those types of images online before. I saw that that feature existed, I saw it was built, so I went onto the beauty site. I took a picture of someone's face with makeup on it, and you could then click on the bits of their face and see what makeup they were using. We didn't ask for it to be built, we just used it because it was cool. 

{audio:0:36:25} That’s interesting. You can see how that is a competitive advantage there for something like Ingenuity could as it scales. If you bring more of these websites on, the offering just gets better, and the more brands THG brings on. 

{audio:0:36:43} It’s limited by how much the tech team can develop. Acquisitions obviously get priority over, for example, the feature that the Beauty team might want. There’s a never-ending priority list, like with any young company for a tech team, but it's as good as a tech team be. I think it’s part of why THG started their university. I don’t know if it’s still running, but they were training up tech people, because they couldn't find enough to hire in the North West, to try and feed them into the business. 

{audio:0:37:24} With a smaller acquisition, how seamless is the Ingenuity integration? How much of it is bringing old school logistics from the brand, in house, and finding synergies where you can and getting rid of what you can? 

{audio:0:37:57} Because many shops come from Shopify, they built a connector that speeds up the process of transferring a Shopify shop over to a THG Ingenuity website. In the case of Dermstore, which was a custom platform, it was a lot of testing with the database team and feeding it through. There was a lot.

{audio:0:38:32} It was labor intensive still. 

{audio:0:38:41} It doesn’t mean they wouldn't improve it. For example, when we launched the international websites seven years ago, we built every website from scratch. Eventually, the tech team spent about four months designing something called the franking machine, where you press a button. In 10 minutes, you’ve got a copy of the website on a new locale, and all you have to do is translate it. The mindset is always, how do we do this but how do we do this at scale? How do we spend more time to do it at scale? That's what senior management will always think about. 

{audio:0:39:17} Broadly, is Beauty as good a business as the Nutrition business? It strikes me as a harder business. I would guess that because of the acquisitions, its growth rates have stayed higher as we exit from the pandemic. How much future growth will come from bolting things on, and how much of the core brands’ potential is left? 

{audio:0:39:56} It's a much harder business. Own brand versus resellers, as a reseller in the market, you’re selling other people’s products. The value in growth in beauty is if they can get their own brands, the ones they own to sell, rather than something like LOOKFANTASTIC. LOOKFANTASTIC is a big player in the market, and sells many brands, but you're so at the behest of anything else to happen. If Estée Lauder decides to reduce their distribution to their own channels, there's nothing you can do about it. There is always this inherent risk of third-party retailers, but they might need you as much as you need them. It seems like it could be more of a risk long term, but I’m not sure. 

{audio:0:40:50} Beauty is harder in general, because you have a mix of intense brand loyalty until you’ve lost it; it can suddenly go when consumers switch. Let’s talk more about Ingenuity. To use a stock market term, so much of the bull case originally was around that. The management encourages people to consider the number of websites they’re onboarding and the backlog of websites there. That’s the growth story that should be focused on. Are there any other KPIs that don't get talked about as much, that people like me should consider when trying to understand how that business is doing? 

{audio:0:42:21} I don’t think so. It’s the website, its revenue generated. I don’t have a view on the pricing structure or how it’s charged, for Ingenuity. I’m not sure.

{audio:0:42:36} They’re not entirely forthcoming with that information. 

{audio:0:43:00} As far as I understand, and you’ll know better how it happened than me, but what happened internally was that SoftBank wanted to invest a lot of money, but only in Ingenuity. They gave the promise of a lot of money, which threw the valuation up. Then Covid happened. Then the value of ingenuity was then slated, and that tanked the entire value of the company, of everything all included, and now we’re here.

{audio:0:43:43} It’s one of the biggest sentiment changes I have seen. Let's be honest, the valuation was fairly lofty, but now it's ridiculous, on any sum of the parts, or comparables. If you split it, and look at what you could get in the private markets for the Nutrition and Beauty businesses, what would you find?

{audio:0:44:19} It’s way more than the value of business currently. 

{audio:0:44:23} Yes, you would find it’s multiples of the whole group, so it's strange. With the SoftBank option they let expire, the whole group was selling for a fraction of the option exercise price, just for a percentage of Ingenuity. Then today, they announced that SoftBank has also sold out of the Ordinary Shares. They’ve sold it to the Qataris, and Matt Moulding has bought another stock. Because SoftBank owns them in their hedge fund, which they’ve had to close down. 

{audio:0:45:00} Matt Moulding has bought shares in Ordinary? 

{audio:0:45:03} He has. He didn’t do it directly; he bought them through his investment company. I think it was 12,000,000 shares, which was announced today, and the Qataris have bought about 67,500,000. Basically, the SoftBank position has been completely liquidated, so they’re not involved in any form now. That's led to lots of speculation in the last couple days, with all the stock market stuff over the last six months, with the bids rejected and Matt’s Golden Share. I think part of the reason for the decline was that it's a perfect storm. The London Stock Exchange and UK investors are not accustomed to businesses like THG, or to founder shares; they are still unusual here. It has been a perfect storm of negative sentiment around it. Partly it has been an own goal; you shouldn’t talk about short attacks. That's a surefire way to get people to short you, it’s not very good.

{audio:0:46:23} I don't think Matt reacted in the right way to it; he is an angry introvert. That's his personality. 

{audio:0:46:35} How do you think he’ll be feeling? Is this motivation to him? Is he the sort of guy who wants to prove everyone wrong? 

{audio:0:46:45} Definitely. I don't think it would put him off. He’s just making more fire to prove everyone wrong. I don’t know whether that’s a good or a bad thing? 

{audio:0:47:05} Is he the sort of guy who would take it private again? 

{audio:0:47:12} Who knows? Maybe. Logically, if he took it private, nobody in the private market would want to buy it, because they know what the public thinks of it. There would have to be a fundamental or directional shift in what THG are doing before someone in the private market would recognize the difference in attitude and know what it’s worth. 

{audio:0:47:42} In my opinion, that would probably be true in 95% of the scenarios around a business like THG. However, I think the perfect storm of negative sentiment has been so powerful in driving the valuation down. For example, the Qataris are obviously convinced that this valuation, they’re buying 67 million shares at, is very low, and I wonder how much you could persuade them to buy. I'm sure there are people who bought pounds and pounds above the current market price that might be tempted to own it without the liquidity you would get from the public markets and own it privately, but we’ll see. I think something will happen at some point, because the valuation is so low that the imperative to act for people must be so strong. 

{audio:0:48:39} You’ve been saying that all along. 

{audio:0:48:45} I have; I said it at 110, I said it at 70 and I said it at 50. 

{audio:0:48:49} I started researching it only a few months ago, when it was at 70, and it was at mid-30s in the last week. The deal they did with SoftBank was 39p, so SoftBank invested £500 million and left with £31 million. 

{audio:0:49:08} That was after SoftBank sold their stake in THG to Moulding and Qatar, so it has jumped up to 50. 

{audio:0:49:16} That is interesting, because when that story broke this morning and the LSE News Service announcement came out, the initial press angle on it was negative. It was, ‘SoftBank throw their hands up in despair at how bad an investment with THG has been,’ and the stock market reaction for two days in a row has been positive, as people have started to realize just how undervalued THG is. Then the second and third editions of their stories started to come out with a more positive spin. While I'm not sure I subscribe to Matt Moulding’s idea that there have been war rooms of journalists out to get him, I think there has been an angle, which is interesting. 

{audio:0:50:11} He will never listen to a PR company telling him how to present himself publicly, that's not his personality. He’ll continue to shoot himself in the foot. 

The Hut Group: Myprotein & Nutrition Division

Former VP, The Hut Group

inpractise.com/articles/the-hut-group-myprotein-and-nutrition-division

Executive Bio

Former VP, The Hut Group

Interview Transcript

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