Casey’s General Stores: Store Economics & M&A

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From our observations, it seems that most of the scale players are adopting a rational pricing discipline in this new normal. If retail margins were to revert to pre-2020 and pre-Covid levels, what factors could jeopardize this new fuel margin equilibrium?

To your point, it's just irrationality. However, there are more pressures today than ever before, with rising labor costs and credit card fees taking a chunk out of the business. I think these pressures will make people more rational compared to the past. For example, a market leader like Murphy, with its vertical integration with Murphy Oil, faced less pressure before. But today, the pressures are greater. So, while there's always some risk, I don't see it going backwards. These larger players are growing, and inflationary pressures on building materials are rising. There are more headwinds today than ever before, so I believe rationality will prevail for the long term.

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You mentioned rising costs to build. Can you help me understand the economics of a new store build? What is the cost to build, the typical ramp period to mature in-store sales and fuel, the payback period, and the average staffing requirements? Parsing that out would be very helpful.

Back when I was in the business, it cost anywhere from $4 to $5 million to build a prototypical convenience store. Now, many players are offering boutique or high-speed diesel options to compete, not for over-the-road truckers like Pilot or Loves, but for daytime travelers. Adding a boutique diesel offering can add $1 to $1.5 million to the cost, depending on concrete parking and diesel fuel lanes.

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