Uber: Waymo GTM & Autonomous Vehicle Economics
Former Program Manager at Waymo
Summary
Subscribe to access hundreds of interviews and primary research
Interview Transcript
This is a snippet of the transcript.to get full access.
One question we have is, we understand clearly why Waymo wouldn't want to handle the operational aspects of owning and maintaining the assets. However, there's clear value in being the platform, right? You don't need to pay a take rate to another party, but you do have the cost of acquiring customers. How do you think about this? Why wouldn't Waymo want to be the app and expand Waymo One to a broad set of cities and become a real competitor to Uber? Why wouldn't that be the goal?
I think that could definitely be the goal. However, I believe there's a higher ROI in being a technology provider rather than running the business. If you look at the margins when you allocate a vehicle with minimal human resources and earn, let's say, about 50 or 40 cents a mile over, say, 100,000 miles on average—or maybe that's on the higher side—but even if a robotaxi runs about 80,000 miles a year and you earn 50 cents a mile, you're still generating about $40,000 per vehicle in revenue with minimal overhead.
This is a snippet of the transcript.to get full access.
One question we have is, we understand clearly why Waymo wouldn't want to handle the operational aspects of owning and maintaining the assets. However, there's clear value in being the platform, right? You don't need to pay a take rate to another party, but you do have the cost of acquiring customers. How do you think about this? Why wouldn't Waymo want to be the app and expand Waymo One to a broad set of cities and become a real competitor to Uber? Why wouldn't that be the goal?
Now, Uber's average revenue per mile is about $4. If you take half of that, you get about $2. So for 80,000 miles a year with an average mile cost of $4, even if Waymo gets half of it, which is $2, each vehicle generates about $160,000 in revenue. That's a significant amount and almost breaks even the BOM cost of the vehicle in a year or less. In a first-party model, there's a lot of infrastructure setup needed and human labor involved, which is difficult to model for. In dense urban environments, where robotaxis are feasible, labor is expensive.
This is a snippet of the transcript.to get full access.
Do you think that in two years Zoox will be on par with Waymo in terms of software quality?
Yes, I believe that in two years, Zoox will reach a level of maturity and stabilization similar to Waymo. Waymo has hit a saturation curve with their 1,500 vehicles operating in the five major cities in the U.S. They are not learning anything new; they are just running as a service. Zoox will likely hit that maturity curve in two years, becoming extremely safe unless someone else is at fault.
Free Sample of 50+ Interviews
Sign up to test our content quality with a free sample of 50+ interviews.
Related Content

Hyperscaler AI Inference Cost: Custom ASICs vs GPUs
Former Data Center Product Architect and Senior Director at Nvidia

NVIDIA, Trainium, and GPUs vs Custom ASICs
Former Data Center Product Architect and Senior Director at Nvidia

Geely & Chinese EV Penetration in Europe
Former Head of Future Mobility at Zeekr, Geely Group

Azure, AWS, GCP: AI, Capacity, & Cloud Budget Allocation
Former Engineering Leader at American Airlines
© 2024 In Practise. All rights reserved. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.