Autonomous Trucking: Future & Impact
SVP at Gatik
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Interview Transcript
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At a high level, how do you view the impact of autonomous trucking and autonomy in general on the trucking industry. Let's start there and then potentially get more specific.
If you look at revenue per mile across Class 8, Class 6, and Class 7 trucking, it's roughly $2 per mile. The cost basis is about $1.97, which translates into razor-thin margins and very little flexibility. Out of the $1.97, approximately 30% to 50% of the cost is related to the driver. If you can compensate for the driver or remove the driver, it results in enormous cost savings. This is why all the big logistics-heavy companies are pushing heavily for autonomy and are open to strong partnerships with autonomous trucking players.
This is a snippet of the transcript.to get full access.
At a high level, how do you view the impact of autonomous trucking and autonomy in general on the trucking industry. Let's start there and then potentially get more specific.
Funding has been strong. Regarding the technological solutions, there are two schools of thought. One is the rule-based AI model, reminiscent of earlier days, like Waymo. It's a simple "if this, then that" rule system. For example, if there's a stop sign, the truck needs to stop. The second school of thought, which is gaining traction, includes players like Waabi and Stack AV. They use a Tesla-like black box model, a fully end-to-end AI model. It's harder to understand the reasoning behind certain decisions, but the advantage is that it's significantly more scalable, eliminating the need to train the system for each dedicated operational design domain where the autonomous truck can operate.
This is a snippet of the transcript.to get full access.
And those margins, as you define them currently, are quite slim. Would you expect some margin expansion for the remaining autonomous trucking players, or do you suspect that margins will remain roughly the same relative portion as they are now?
It really depends on the business model of the autonomous trucking players. Currently, all the autonomous trucking players are heavily loss-making. It's a venture capital case. There are different models being tested. You have the typical full-scale model where the autonomous trucking player needs to purchase the vehicles, is responsible for the adaptation, purchases the sensors, and is also responsible for upgrading and maintaining them. So the full risk is on the autonomous trucking player. This is really vertically integrated.
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