FTAI Aviation: Aeroderivative Gas Turbine Competition
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I have been reading the research reports and speaking with people who are in the industry. On a dollar per megawatt basis today for aeroderivatives, I have been hearing you can sell them for between $1 million and $1.5 million per megawatt. What is typical in the industry today? I am guessing it has probably changed over the last few years because clearly AI power is in demand.
If you asked this question 12 months ago, the answer would have been, for the center line equipment - the power island itself of the gas turbine, the generator, and some of those supporting auxiliaries - it might have been $700,000 per megawatt. Today it is easily $1.2 million per megawatt. You are talking about a 70% increase in price over the last year. I do not believe a lot of that is driven by labor rates and cost of materials. The market has become so scarce, that is the price that GE or Siemens can command from smaller folks.
This is a snippet of the transcript.to get full access.
I have been reading the research reports and speaking with people who are in the industry. On a dollar per megawatt basis today for aeroderivatives, I have been hearing you can sell them for between $1 million and $1.5 million per megawatt. What is typical in the industry today? I am guessing it has probably changed over the last few years because clearly AI power is in demand.
I think the number is going to go even higher. I would expect that if we had this call in December of 2026, I wouldn't be surprised if it is $1.5 million per megawatt. Maybe it will reach that as quick as this summer. The order books of GE, Siemens and Solar Turbines are now booked out to 2029 or 2030. If FTAI or Boom Supersonic can produce and ship units in 2028 or 2029, they will be able to command a premium. Today they could charge 20% to 30% higher because speed to market is everything with data centers.
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I spoke with someone who was a non-modular engine maker, and he was thinking that in more typical times, the GE engines got a premium. His explanation was since it is modular, that performance restoration at 25,000 hours is faster. You basically switch in a new module, which means you don't need as many spare engines. Do you think that is true overall, that modular systems get a premium, or do people just pay a premium because it is GE? No one gets fired for using Goldman Sachs or McKinsey, so it is probably the same thing with GE, they get a premium because of their name.
If a combustion system uses dry low emissions technology, those companies are going to be best primed going forward. Boom Supersonic is not using water for emissions control so they are in a unique position going forward. If FTAI is going forward with a combustion system that is minimizing the use of water for their emissions control, that is going to be a market differentiator. I have no idea what FTAI is doing, but if they were to tell you, "Our technology is not going to require much water to control emissions," it would make me even more interested in that company as a potential market disruptor.
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