Partner Interview
Published March 20, 2026
Embraer: E2 Fleet Strategy & US Regional Market Dynamics
inpractise.com/articles/embraer-e2-fleet-strategy-and-us-regional-market-dynamics
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Disclaimer: This interview is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. In Practise is an independent publisher and all opinions expressed by guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of In Practise.
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I want to touch on a few topics in the commercial space, but I think we can start broadly with the overall demand for the products. We can split this into the E175 and the E195. Embraer tells investors they anticipate demand for about 60 units per year for the E175, but they don't specify the demand for the E195. I'd love to hear your perspective. Considering that orders can be quite irregular, what would you estimate as the average number of orders we should expect for each segment over a three-year period?
What drives the E175 E1 sales are two things. First, the total size of the mainline fleet. If you look at the scope clause, some contracts have a total number of airplanes within 76 seats. Specifically, American Airlines has a clause that the number of airplanes in the regional fleet is a proportion of the fleet size in the mainline. Therefore, if American grows its mainline fleet, think 737s, A320s, 787s onwards, they would have more space in the regional aspect. The Delta and United contracts do not have this; they cap at, if I'm not mistaken, 250-something 76-seaters. They also have some 70-seaters, which could be filled by E175s, and before that, they have some 50-seaters. The demand size for the next three years will be based on the retirements of the older generation of CRJ 700s and 900s, which are operated in the U.S. These could then be offset and taken by new orders from U.S. carriers.
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So you would assume that retirement starts over 20 years and then accelerates over 25 years, something like that for this point?
Yes correct, 20 years is roughly where I would say. So, let's say you retire the airplane at 20 years, which is the assumption I used at Embraer. If you do that, you have to consider that the order needs to come around four years before, maybe three years, considering backlog, conditions, timing of negotiations, and all that. So that's roughly where you can see that happening. I would expect by the end of the decade another order from U.S. carriers to replace those orders that have already been reached.
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