IP Management Reference Checks: Carvana, Applovin, TransDigm, Airbnb, Judges Scientific
Today we’re launching IP References, a management reference check research product built solely from primary research. Each reference check on a CEO or leader is built from ~10 hours of private and published executive interviews plus hours of investigations, research, and public record searches.
As long-term investors ourselves, a core part of our research process is to understand the competence of management. We want to know who is deploying our capital.
IP References aims to provide insight into the character and personality of CEOs and key executives at companies we’re studying. It also provides a unique lens into the company’s culture. Ultimately, culture is a set of shared and learned actions or behaviours. Studying a leader’s character, competence, and decision making framework shines light on company culture. IP References focuses on both the CEO and the company’s soul.
We remain committed to producing the highest-quality primary research globally.
For this reason, we’re structuring IP References as follows:
- ~15 reference checks per year
- Each reference check will include ~5 hours of raw published interviews
- Public records, court filings, and forensic investigative work, where necessary
- A write-up of key takeaways on the individual and culture
- Limited access and distribution given the sensitivity of the topics
Pricing
Reference checks are available to purchase individually or in a bundle. It is not part of our core subscription because of the strict focus on an individuals' personality and character. We don't believe this is suitable for wide distribution.
We also want to align ourselves with investment managers that value this type of work. This is why we’re launching a Founding Membership tier for IP References.
Each Founding Member will pay a fixed annual price for:
- One custom Reference Check in Year 1
- 1-week exclusive access to read their custom report before it’s published
- Votes to prioritize our future coverage
- 4 credits to read other reference checks
We plan to limit the Founding Membership tier to 5 managers. Please reach out if any individual reference check or the Founding Membership is of interest.
Reference Checks Published
Please see below for more details on the reference checks above. We're also open to suggestions of leaders to cover.
Potential Future Coverage
- Doug Herrington; CEO of Amazon Retail
- Thomas Kurian, CEO of Google Cloud
- Aneel Bhusri, CEO and Co-founder of Workday
- Alexandre Arnault, Deputy CEO of Moët Hennessy
- Christian Klein, CEO of SAP
- Greg Abel - CEO of Berkshire Hathaway
- Andy Florance, CEO of CoStar Group
- Simon Wilson, CEO of Markel Insurance
- Benedetto Vigna, CEO of Ferrari
- Gustav Soderstrom, Co-CEO of Spotify
- Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML
- Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta
- Pete Arvan, CEO of POOL Corp
- Aaron Nahmad, President at Watsco
- Dave Lewis, CEO of Diageo
- David Rosa, CEO of Intuitive Surgical
- Kristo Käärmann, CEO of Wise
- Bela Bajaria, Chief Content Officer at Netflix
- Ron Vachris, CEO of Costco
- And more to be added
According to the 2025 proxy, Ernie Garcia II has 52% of Carvana votes and effectively controls the company. Carvana earns the majority of its operating income via loan origination. This report curates ~4 months of work focused on these two variables:
- How does Carvana underwrite, package, and sell loans for a considerable gain-on-loan sale
- What is Ernie Garcia II’s professional and personal profile and history outside the well-known 1990 bank fraud case
Our research is built on conversations with executives close to the Garcia’s and with first-hand experience of building Carvana’s underwriting models. We’ve also spoken to various buyers of Carvana loans. We believe there is incremental information about which and how Carvana uses certain variables in its underwriting model. And also relevant information about Garcia’s background, outside of the well-known 1990 S&L bank fraud case, that may be interesting for shareholders to understand.
In October last year, Michael Lisman was made CEO of TransDigm, a month before his 43rd birthday. For the last few months, we’ve been interviewing former colleagues of Mike to understand his character and how TransDigm is evolving as many of its founding team retires or moves on.
Our research is built on hours of interviews publicly and privately including with the following profiles:
Multiple executives also raised the current challenge of TransDigm maintaining its culture as many of the old guard move on. Lisman supposedly has recruited an internal ‘culture team’. We share the challenges internally.
This reference check aims to understand how Chesky organizes and runs Airbnb. We explore how decisions are made and the process of launching new products such as Experiences and Services. We’ve spent over five hours in private and published interviews with the following former colleagues of Brian Chesky:
- Former Head of US Market Development : was the 13th employee at Airbnb and spent over 13 years at the company
- Former Global Managing Director at Airbnb : spent over 5 years at Airbnb focused on the supply side
- Former Global VP of Customer Platforms : spent over six years at Airbnb in its product and engineering team
- Former Creative Director: was a leading member of Airbnb's creative team and worked under Hiroki who reported to Brian
Since the IPO, Tang Hao, a Chinese citizen, has been Applovin’s largest individual shareholder outside of founder and CEO Adam Foroughi. Applovin’s connections to Hao have also been a focal point for multiple previous short reports.
This report curates our research on Tang Hao’s history, relationships, and business operations from various private interviews and sources. We believe we have found incremental information beyond what has been disclosed in all historical short reports to date that will be interesting to shareholders.
On the 25th September, Mark Leonard announced he is stepping down as President of Constellation Software for health reasons and Mark Miller is his replacement. The stock is in the midst of a ~50% drawdown.
This report is structured to highlight the main learnings about Miller’s character from first-hand stories and experiences. The learnings are organised around the core drivers of CSIs long-term performance including capital deployment, organic growth, and talent development. Although we’ve been studying Constellation for ~10 years, producing this report provided a deeper level of insight into the company than we expected.
We’ve conducted over 15 hours of private and published interviews including:
- Former Portfolio Manager at Volaris: The executive ran Mark Miller's original Trapeze US scheduling software company he sold to Leonard in 1995 and reported to Miller.
- Former Portfolio Manager, Volaris: The executive has over 35 years experience in Software who ran a portfolio of ~$35m in revenue across Europe for Trapeze, Volaris.
- Former Portfolio Manager at Modaxo : The executive met Mark Miller in 2004 and worked at Trapeze and Modaxo since last year. He ran a group of companies and reported to Miller.
- Former M&A Director at CSU
- Former Board Member at Computer Modelling Group
Judges Scientific is a UK-based holding company that owns a portfolio of niche scientific instrumentation manufacturers. We've followed the business closely for 6+ years for multiple reasons:
- It is owner operated with ~10% inside ownership
- Over the past 15 years, revenue has compounded at ~20% CAGR, EBIT at ~26% (of which ~9% CAGR was organic), and FCF per share at ~17% CAGR
- Owns a portfolio of companies with dominant positions in niche markets
- Low capital requirements and high ROIC
- A disciplined M&A strategy acquiring businesses at ~6x EBIT
Three months ago, Judges' founder David Cicurel (76 years old) announced he is stepping down as CEO and Tim Prestidge would be his replacement. We have conducted nearly 10 hours of interviews with former colleagues of Tim to understand his character and competence. All interviews and key takeaways are within this reference check.
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