Aircraft Engine Oversupply: Overhaul Disruption

I’m just looking at some of the numbers here, from CFM: 40% of engines that are out, have had one shop visit and 45%, roughly, have had no shop visits.

That’s CFM56 data, I presume?

Yes. When you look at those with one shop visit, if we have an oversupply of aircraft and, potentially, oversupply of engines, would you retire some of these engines? How does the airline operator think about shop visits, whether you’ve got old or newer engines?

An engine, typically, has a life of about three shop visits. If you assume five years, for an engine overhaul, after the last visit, the engine is somewhere around 15 years old. You’re not going to put it through a fourth visit. The peak of production for the CFM56 was two years ago. If memory serves, I believe CFMI delivered something like 1,700 engines, in 2017, 2018. That was the peak. So there’s an awful lot of engines out there, which haven’t yet even had an overhaul.

If we assume that we’re going to be oversupplied with aircraft, for some time, we’re going to see engines not getting to their third overhaul, because there’s plenty of engines to choose from.

You can upgrade to the LEAP, as well, I assume?

At the moment, it’s not possible to take a 320 classic and put a LEAP engine on it. You would need to change the pylon and all the plumbing in the pylon. Plus, there are some aircraft systems that would need to change. I think the wing outboard area changes too. Today, Airbus is not offering a kit to upgrade the classic 320 to a 320neo. On the 737, the changes are too big to take a 737 classic and make it into a MAX. Basically, you’re stuck with the engine type that you’ve got on your airplane. The only way to change the engine type is to change the aircraft type.

All those engines with zero or one shop visit, they’re probably going to get another shop visit? It might be pushed out a bit longer, due to the lack of demand, but they’re going to get the shop visit, at some point in time?